Lillie's Determinationリーリエの決心Mega Evolution · #086/63 · 2025 · 🇯🇵 Japanese
The Hoshino Verdict
What this card’s market is actually doing — scored, stated and kept current.
Hoshino recorded 104 confirmed sales of this card in the last 12 months across 3 venues. The market price is down 76% over the year, down 2% over 90 days and down 11% over 30 days. The most recent sale we hold is from today.
Verdict recomputed 12m ago · it changes as the market does.
Lillie's Determination is card 86 in Mega Evolution, released in 2025 as part of the ポケモンカードゲーム MEGA series. This is the Japanese printing (リーリエの決心).
We hold 104 confirmed sales on record for this card — every price on this page traces back to them.
Descriptive market data, not investment advice. The Hoshino Score measures how deep, liquid, widely-traded, dear and scarce this card’s market is from sales and population records we hold. It is not a forecast, not a recommendation, and not a rating of this card as an investment.
Price by grade
What each grade’s real sales say — median of what actually sold.
Each grade is priced on the median of its own real sales — never averaged across grades, and never across printings. A 1st Edition, Shadowless or No Rarity copy is a different market from the ordinary print, so it gets its own row; where a grade holds sales of more than one printing and we cannot tell which copy sold, it is shown without a price — we abstain rather than publish the blend.
| Tier | Price | Confidence | Liquidity | Basis | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw (ungraded) | $40 | Moderate3 of 5 confidence checks passed | 48 in 90d recorded | 77 sales · last recorded 2d ago | 77 |
| ARS 10 | — | — | 1 in 90d recorded | 1 sale · single sale | 1 |
| PSA 9 | $58.28 | High4 of 5 confidence checks passed | 6 in 90d recorded | 13 sales · last recorded 9d ago | 13 |
| PSA 10 | $120 | High4 of 5 confidence checks passed | 43 in 90d recorded | 55 sales · last today | 55 |
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How confident are we in each of these prices?
There is no weighting and no hidden formula here. We ask five plain questions about the sales behind a price, and the rating is simply how many of them we can answer yes to. Every threshold is the one our pricing engine already uses to decide whether it trusts its own answer — none was invented for this rating. A grade we publish no price for gets no rating either: there would be nothing to rate.
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 48 confirmed sales at this exact grade (the observation count beside this rung also includes 1 row reconstructed from a listing’s own lifecycle rather than a confirmed sale — those never count toward this check)
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 12% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 2 days ago
- ✗More than one marketplace — Every sale came from the same marketplace, so this is one venue’s price rather than the market’s
- ✗Dated by the venue, not by us — 48 of 48 came from venues that publish no sale date, so those dates are the day we recorded the sale — an upper bound on when it actually traded
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 12 confirmed sales at this exact grade
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 13% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 9 days ago
- ✓More than one marketplace — Sales came from 3 different marketplaces
- ✗Dated by the venue, not by us — 3 of 12 came from venues that publish no sale date, so those dates are the day we recorded the sale — an upper bound on when it actually traded
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 43 confirmed sales at this exact grade
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 26% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale today
- ✓More than one marketplace — Sales came from 3 different marketplaces
- ✗Dated by the venue, not by us — 28 of 43 came from venues that publish no sale date, so those dates are the day we recorded the sale — an upper bound on when it actually traded
Where a rung reads last recorded, its most recent sale came from a venue that publishes no sale date — Mercari Japan publishes none — so that date is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. The price is real; the date is an observation and we will not dress it up as a timestamp.
Cross-market comparisons and arbitrage routes are computed within one grade — PSA 10 against PSA 10, raw against raw. A route is never built from two different grades.
The same card in a different holder
What the market pays for this card at the same grade in each grader’s slab — and, if you hold one, what cracking it would have to return to be worth the fee.
Each grader’s price below is the median of that grader’s own recorded sales of this card at this exact grade. Nothing is averaged across graders and nothing is interpolated from a neighbouring grade. Every price here is the same figure the price-by-grade table above publishes — a rung that table abstains on is abstained on here too, and every fee, freight and tax figure is a real published rate from our cost model.
ARS 10 vs PSA 10
We can price an ARS slab because ARS slabs sell in public and we record those sales. We cannot tell you your chance of getting a 10 from ARS: that needs population data — how many of each grade ARS has issued for this card — and we hold none. ARS publishes no population report of the kind PSA, CGC and BGS do. So there is no “submit to ARS” route on this page, and we will not model one.
Price trend
Median market price over time, plus the sale-by-sale receipts.
Each point is a real recorded sale at that grade, over the full time we hold. Grades trade at very different prices, so the trend is per grade — pick a grade above.
Daily snapshot medians · US market · raw bucket. — the broader raw market-price trend across the same period, alongside the graded sales above.
Recent sales
| Sold | Venue | Region | Grade | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 23h ago | 🇯🇵 Yahoo! Japan Auctions | Japan | PSA 10 | ¥13,500 · $85.91 | view ↗ |
| 2026-09-19 2d ago recorded | 🇯🇵 SNKRDUNK | Japan | PSA 10 | $93 | view ↗ |
| 2026-09-18 2d ago recorded | 🇯🇵 SNKRDUNK | Japan | LP | $35 | view ↗ |
| 2026-09-18 2d ago recorded | 🇯🇵 SNKRDUNK | Japan | NM | $36 | view ↗ |
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The 4 most recent — confirmed sales first, then estimates; distinct price points, identical re-ingested rows count once, never stacked. The full 104-point sale-by-sale history unlocks with Pro. Venue is the marketplace the sale actually cleared on — eBay, Goldin, ALT, Fanatics, SNKRDUNK and the rest — established from the sale’s own listing URL, its auction house, or the feed’s own declaration of the venue. A via tag names the data feed that delivered the record; the feed is never the venue. Where none of those establish a marketplace the row says venue not disclosed rather than naming one we cannot prove. Rows tagged guide are marketplace price-guide points (TCGplayer market / Cardmarket trend), not confirmed sales; rows tagged est. are inferred from a listing that left the market, not directly-recorded sales. Rows tagged recorded come from a venue that publishes no sale date — Mercari Japan publishes none — so the date shown is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. The price is real either way; we do not invent a date.
We hold 1 sale of this card that is not allowed to price anything. Every figure on this page was computed with it removed. See what we set aside for this card, and why →
See the 30-day, 90-day and 1-year charts and every past sale on record — date, venue, region, grade and the price it actually fetched.
Buy from around the world
The lowest live ask on every platform we track — cheapest first.
The cheapest live ask in every region we track — real global pricing, not just the US.
See every listing we track and the net spread — cheapest ask first, the difference after ~13% marketplace + payment fees.
Asks are what sellers want; the price above is what the market actually clears at. Pro shows both sides plus the spread net of fees.
Sold around the world
Daily market prices by region and platform — what this card actually changes hands for worldwide, kept apart from seller asks.
| Platform | Sales | Median | Low – High | Last sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Snkrdunk | 48 | $39 | $30 – $46 | $35 2d ago recorded |
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Daily market prices across 1 platform in Japan — counts are distinct sales, never duplicated listings. Guide rows (TCGplayer market / Cardmarket trend) are labelled as estimates, not sales. A recorded tag means that venue publishes no sale date, so its date is the day we saw the listing sold.
What grading this card would actually cost you
Every term in the sum, sourced — the slab’s real sale price, the marketplace’s published fee, the grader’s published rate.
Every graded row is that same sale, minus the same marketplace fee, minus the grader’s published fee, minus $12 of shipping both ways. The “vs raw” column is the only number that matters: what that outcome would leave you with over selling the card as it is now.
PSA · cheapest published service tier whose declared-value cap covers each outcome
| If it grades | Sells for | eBay fee | Grading | You net | vs raw | Of existing slabs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 · 55 sales | $120 | −$16 | −$80PSA Regular · 35d | $12 | −$22 | — |
| PSA 9 · 13 sales | $58 | −$8.12 | −$80PSA Regular · 35d | −$42 | −$75 | — |
The “of existing slabs” column is blank for PSA on this card. Its population reading is contradicted by our own sale record (see the population section), and a share worked out from a count we have called incomplete would be a fabricated probability.
What this cannot tell you. Which grade your copy would get. That depends on centring, edges, surface and corners on the card in your hand, and we have never seen it — so there is no single headline number here and no “worth it / not worth it” verdict. Each row is one outcome, priced from that tier’s own real sales; a tier we publish no price for stays blank rather than borrowing a figure from the grade next to it. Turnaround is the grader’s published business-day estimate, and the market can move inside it. Descriptive market arithmetic, not investment advice.
Should you grade it?
Expected grade × daily market prices − grading fees = net value, per grader.
See the full grader ladder — chance of a 10, what a 10 and a 9 actually fetch, and the fee, expected value and ROI on every route.
Should you grade it? Every grader route, your cost basis, and Japan vs the West → · or scan a photo of your copy
The same card, in English
One artwork trades in two markets under different numbers. Here is the other one.
Long-term outlook
Transparent scenario model from real solds, supply and demand — bands widen with time.
See where this card is projected to be in 10 years — scenario bands, every horizon, and the long-term verdict.
Scenario projection based on demand/supply trends and known catalysts. Not investment advice and not a guarantee of future prices.
More from Mega Evolution
Same set, same shelf.
Frequently asked questions
Every answer below is computed from the sales, population and catalogue records on this page — so it changes when the market does.
How much is Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086) worth?
Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086) is worth $39 based on daily market prices (49 distinct sales) on Hoshino. Typical range: $36–$42 (raw/ungraded).
Where can I buy or sell Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086)?
You can find Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086) on Hoshino, with live listings on Snkrdunk and recent solds from Snkrdunk. Each listing links directly to the seller’s page.
What is the graded value of Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086)?
Graded values for Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086): PSA 9 — $58.28; PSA 10 — $120. Each tier is priced on its own sales — Hoshino never mixes a PSA 10 with a raw copy.
Is Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086) going up or down in price?
Lillie's Determination (Mega Evolution #086) is trending down in price. 30-day change: -11%. 1-year change: -76%. Based on live market data tracked on Hoshino.
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